Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Upset about WVa?

What does Obama's super loss in West Virginia tonight mean for the general election.  Are poor white rural voters not going to back him in November?  Is he going to lose to McCain because Hillary is getting the female, less-educated, working-class vote during the primaries? 

Before you jump to conclusions or read too much into what the pundits and the Hillary camp have been saying, let's get some fact-checking done courtesy of Obama's people via Swampland:

Debunking Five Myths About Obama’s Support

MYTH 1: The Primary has left Democrats divided.
FACT: Democrats are united behind Barack Obama, even more so than Republicans are united behind McCain
• May 12 Washington Post poll shows that Obama wins 81% of Democrats in a matchup against John McCain.
• Indeed, more Republicans crossover to vote for Obama (15%) than do Democrats for McCain (13%).
NOTE: In 1996, Bill Clinton won 84% of Democrats.

MYTH 2: The Primary campaign has hurt Obama with swing voters and Republicans:
FACT: Obama is winning the swing voters against McCain by a wide margin.
• Obama holds a 51-42 lead among Independents in the Washington Post poll.
NOTE: Clinton loses 46-49 to McCain among Independents.

• Not since 1988, when George Bush beat Michael Dukakis 57-43 among Independents, has a candidate won such a large margin among swing voters.
· In his two victories, Clinton only managed a 6-point margin over the Republican among independents in 1992 and an 8-point margin in 1996.
· Indeed, no Democrat has won a majority of Independent voters since exit polls were first conducted in 1976.

MYTH 3: Obama cannot perform strongly enough among white voters:
FACT: Obama’s is running as well or better than past Democratic Candidates among white voters.
• LA Times (May 8) Obama: 41 McCain: 45
• Wash Post (May 13): Obama: 42 McCain: 51
• 2004 Exit polls: Kerry: 41 Bush: 58
• 2000 Exit Polls: Gore: 43 Bush: 54
• 1996 Exit polls: Clinton: 43 Dole: 46
• 1992 Exit polls: Clinton: 39 Bush: 41 Perot: 20

MYTH 4: The race against Clinton has compromised Obama’s position among women:
FACT: Obama has begun attracting the support of a broad coalition of women and is poised to win historic margins.
• Wash Post (May 13): Obama: 54 McCain: 40
• New York Times (May 3) Obama: 47 McCain: 39
NOTE: No Democratic candidate has won women by so large a margin since exit polling was first conducted in 1976. The closest any candidate has come was in 2000, when Al Gore won women 54-43 over George Bush

MYTH 5: Obama cannot win working class voters:
FACT: Obama is already winning working class voters
• In the recent LA Times poll, Obama wins every income group under $100,000.
Obama McCain
· <$40K: 43 35
· $40K-$59K 43 40
· $60K-$100K 51 42
· $101K+ 46 47

• According to the Washington Post/ABC poll released today, despite Sen. Clinton’s insistence that she is stronger among white, working-class voters the data shows that Sen. Obama performs nearly as well as she does in the general election. Among white, non-college voters in this poll:
· Obama vs. McCain is 40-52
· Clinton vs. McCain is 44- 52

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